Starliner | RUAG | Geely | Black Arrow | Boeing | PredaSAR | Axiom Space | MinoSpace | Perseverance | SpaceMobile | SpaceX
issue 7
Hi friends;
Last week during a coffee break, I discussed with a friend on white zones in France and the role that satellites can play in reducing them. Everybody pretty much agrees on the positive role that satellites can play in connecting the world. Here, I would like to set out my vision of the dark side of the recent initiatives toward this goal.
There are today several mega-constellation projects with the promise of offering a very high speed internet connection, at affordable prices and anywhere on the globe. Among the big players we find Starlink, OneWeb, Kuiper, O3b, Athena... In the years to come, it would not be surprising to see Apple, Alibaba or even a government like UAE join the race. All this to say that if these manufacturers stick to their plans, we should count between 50,000 and 100,000 additional satellites in low to medium earth orbit.
Other than the impacts, certainly controversial, linked to ecological (manufacturing, delivery, launch) and light (lots of new moving stars in the sky) pollution, I would like to set out three issues which, in my view, are critical:
How to orchestrate satellites within and between constellations? A single collision can put all the constellations out of service. An error in the calculation of a satellite's trajectory/position or the arrival of undetected space debris can result in generating thousands of other uncontrollable projectiles which will in turn cause further collisions. This could not only destroy several satellites (positioning, telecoms, observation), but also make the low and medium orbits unusable... almost for life!
In order to avoid these accidents, it is imperative to continuously track thousands of satellites and space debris, or even to manoeuvre in order to minimize damages in the event of imminent accidents. This task is clearly superhuman, thus, reliance on algorithms and, worse, on artificial intelligence, is unavoidable. I say worse because artificial intelligence, as admired by investors and marketing people, will probably converge towards deep learning techniques: programs whose behaviour cannot really be predicted. Besides, between protecting satellites, people on earth, or the two astronauts on board the ISS, the Asimov’s laws of robotics will become more than relevant…
Imagine that, due to some unexpected event, a Starlink and a OneWeb satellite are about to collide and that our artificial intelligence decides either one of the two satellites should be temporarily de-orbited. Let's also imagine that the two satellites, because of this change of orbit, will not be able to ensure inter-satellite communications with their colleagues for the total duration of the manoeuvre. This will mean that not only the area covered by this satellite will be affected but also that the traffic exchanged between two trading rooms will be delayed by some ms, as it will be rerouted to a longer path. In short, neither of the two operators has any interest in moving because, well, "the customer is king". How to decide?[1]
This editorial is long enough at this point, I'll stop here for the moment. Next week, I'll share three other points that, in my opinion, are more critical. In the meanwhile, if you agree/disagree, do not hesitate to drop a comment!
Have a great week!
[1] Not necessarily related but this situation reminds me of the funny conversation between an American warship and Spanish coastal agents here.
🛰 Here is what you missed
👉The Starliner flight launched last december, and that was intended to meet the ISS, ran into problems almost immediately after launch. John Mulholland, Boeing vice president and program manager, said “We are recommitting ourselves to the discipline needed to test and qualify our products”. “The Boeing team is committed to the success of the Starliner program, and we are putting in the time and the resources to move forward.”
👉The Swedish company RUAG celebrates its 700 satellite separations at the end of February. RUAG is a company with about 100 employees that develops and builds launch structures and satellite separation systems for placing satellites into orbit. The adapters they develop must ensure that the rocket and the satellite are held together firmly during launch and separate properly for placing in orbit.
👉China's largest private car manufacturer, Geely, starts building satellites. After cars, high-speed trains and passenger drones, Geely wants to interconnect all its vehicles through a constellation of satellites. To carry out this project, the company is injecting about 326 million dollars and aims to deploy 500 satellites per year. These satellites will offer broadband internet access, cloud features and accurate positionning.
👉The Black Arrow, also nicknamed "The Lipstick Rocket" because of its very special appearance, is a British launcher developed in the 1960s. On the 50th anniversary of the first successful launch, the company is now called Black Arrow Space Technologies. The British company is now developing space flight technologies to put satellites into orbit from sea-vessels. The idea is to move to any customer's side in the world to launch payloads of up to 500 kg into low-polar orbit.
👉Boeing and Lockheed Martin join Northrop Grumman as prime contractors to develop the Protected Tactical Satellite payload for the US space forces. Boeing and Lockheed Martin have each received $191 million and $240 million in contracts, respectively. Northrop Grumman was awarded a $253 million contract. All three companies will develop jamming-resistant payloads.
👉PredaSAR raises $25 million to deploy a constellation of 44 SAR satellites. The start-up was founded in Florida in 2019 and led by a retired former Air Force commander.
👉Axiom Space, a company planning to develop a private space station, announces that it has signed a contract with SpaceX for a commercial mission to the International Space Station. Axiom's plan is to attach a commercial module (a docking station and an "earth observatory") to the ISS by the end of 2024. This will be followed two years later by a habitation module. At the end of the ISS life, the Axiom portion will detach from the ISS and become a private space station. The manned flight signed with SpaceX this week will transport one professional Axiom astronaut and three private astronauts to the ISS. The mission will last 10 days.
👉MinoSpace, a private satellite company based in Beijing, is raising $14 million to develop larger satellites (weighing 200 kilograms or more) and ground equipments. To date, the startup has already sent seven satellites weighing less than 100 kilograms into orbit.
👉NASA's next Mars rover, scheduled for launch this summer, is officially called Perseverance. As a reminder, like all other NASA rovers, names are chosen through a national open competition of young schoolchildren, where candidates propose a name and defend it before a jury. A very good idea indeed to inspire the future engineers of the space agency.
👉The prototype of SpaceX's SN1 spacecraft exploded during a liquid nitrogen pressure test. SN1 was a test prototype for SpaceX's super-heavy giant rocket project, a massive, reusable vertical launch system designed for deep space missions to the moon, Mars and beyond.
👉Japanese online shopping giant Rakuten and global telecom leader Vodafone have invested $110 million in a US start-up, AST & Science, which plans to create a broadband cellular network with a constellation, SpaceMobile, consisting of hundreds of satellites that would be directly linked to people's usual smartphones. AST & Science has raised about $128 million to date. Reading their online FAQ, I am very skeptical about the feasibility of such a technical feat…to be continued!
🍪 Cookie of the week
NASA/JPL has released a photo composed of more than 1,000 images that Curiosity snapped between Nov. 24 and Dec. 1, 2019. It is the highest-resolution panorama ever taken of the red planet. The photo is availlable in three sizes for free: 82MB or 74.7MB. You are not satisfied with the rendering of his two resolutions?...admire the 2.4GB version! Breathless…I wonder what the wallpaper will look like in my room?
Here you are debriefed 👌. Rendezvous next week!
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